016
axpz20 knhc 120259
twdep


Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC sun Feb 12 2012


Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n...east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...and
meteorological analysis.


Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.


...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...


The monsoon trough is along 07n77w to 01n84w to 09n107w to
01n134w. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from
01n134w to 01n140w. No significant convection is noted.


...Discussion...


1030 mb surface high pres is W of the area near 30n147w with a
ridge axis entering the waters near 29n140w and continuing
eastward to 23n115w. A tight pres gradient covers the waters S
of this ridge and N of the ITCZ with fresh trades indicated by
earlier scatterometer passes from 08n to 22n W of 130w and also
from 10n to 20n between 125w and 130w...with seas of 9-13 ft in
mixed NE and NW swell. These trades will shrink in coverage
becoming oriented across the area from 10n to 22n W of 133w by
Mon evening as the above mentioned high and ridge retreats
somewhat to the NW. A tight pres gradient also exists N of 25n E
of 119w between a surface trough over the Gulf of California and
the ridging to the SW-W. Fresh NW winds are within this area as
indicated by a recent experimental oscat scatterometer pass.
These winds will persist through Mon evening.


A surface trough extends from 17n103w to 11n107w. Fresh N-NE
winds are located N of 13n within 180 nm W of the trough.
Associated scattered moderate convection is N of 15n within 75
nm W of trough and from 13n to 16n between 100w and 103.5w. This
trough will gradually weaken...dissipating by Mon evening.


Otherwise NW swell of 8-12 ft covers the waters W of 103w. This
swell will continue to propagate se reaching to 100w by Mon
evening with maximum significant wave heights decaying to 11 ft.


...Gap winds...
Gulf of Tehuantepec...a cold front has moved by N of the area
into the Eastern Bay of Campeche with strong northerly winds
funneling in behind it through the chivela pass downwind across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Recent observations at land based
station ixtepec in Oaxaca Mexico report northerly winds gusting
to 30 kt and a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec
commenced at 18 UTC. This Gale Warning will remain in effect
through early Mon morning with winds rapidly diminishing to less
than 20 kt by Mon evening as winds turn southerly N of the
chivela pass.


Gulfs of papagayo and Panama...fresh trade winds in the SW
Caribbean will continue to funnel through the passes of Central
America into and downwind of the gulfs of papagayo and Panama
through Mon afternoon. The strongest winds will occur during the
early morning hours with the aide of drainage flow off of the
adjacent land mass areas.


$$
Lewitsky

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