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axnt20 knhc 120535
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Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 am EST sun Feb 12 2012


Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological
analysis.


Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/monsoon trough...


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast of Guinea near
10n14w to 5n21w...where the ITCZ continues along 2n30w eq40w to
the coast of Brazil near eq50w. Scattered weak to isolated
moderate convection is within 100-150 nm on either side of both
the ITCZ and the monsoon trough.


...Discussion...


Gulf of Mexico...
upper level wly flow covers the Gulf of Mexico this evening...
carrying moisture aloft from the ern tropical Pacific to across
the majority of the basin. At surface...low-level stratocumulus
clouds cover most of the basin S of 27n in the wake of a cold
front that has now moving across the wrn Atlc and NW Caribbean.
The most dense cloud cover is over the far wrn Gulf and the Bay
of Campeche with small areas of scattered showers S of 25n W of
93w. Marine observations and recent ascat pass indicate N-NE
winds 20-25 kts with occasional gusts to 30 kt across the area.
Strong surface ridging anchored by a 1042 mb high over NE Kansas
will continue to build across the Gulf with strong winds
remaining through Monday. As the ridge shifts E...se to
southerly flow will re-establish over the Gulf through mid week.


Caribbean Sea...
the srn extension of a cold front currently moving across the
wrn Atlc enters the NW Caribbean through central Cuba near
22n79w to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19n87w. Night vision
satellite imagery shows isolated low-top showers within 90 nm
ahead of the front. An area of similar convection is noticed
over the nrn coastal waters of Nicaragua from 13n-16n W of 80w.
A recent ascat pass revealed northerly winds 15-20 kt behind the
front. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean is under
mostly fair weather conditions due to a fairly strong upper
level ridge covering the Caribbean Sea this evening. The relax
surface pressure gradient is maintaining easterly trades in the
range of 10 to 15 kt across the area...with the strongest winds
gusting to 25 kt near the coastal waters of Colombia. Expect the
cold front to stall and dissipate by Tuesday.


Atlantic Ocean...
an upper level trough moves off the ern conus Seaboard with a
shortwave embedded in the southern periphery of the trough
supporting a vigorous cold front extending along 32n66w 25n73w
to across the central Bahamas and into the Caribbean basin
through central Cuba along 22n79w. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm ahead of the front N of
24n. Gale force winds are noted behind the front N of 30n W of
74w...as well as within 210 nm E of front N of 29n with seas
between 8 to 12 ft. The front will continue to expand ewd over
the next 24 hours with gale force winds expected to continue.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad surface
ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high near 33n40w providing mostly
fair weather across the area.


For additional information please visit
http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine


$$


Garcia

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