Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 910 PM EDT Sat may 25 2013 Update... ktbw 00z sounding shows shows a fairly moist middle level layer with dry air at the surface and aloft. The bit of moisture was not enough to Foster showers or thunderstorms today...though an isolated storm is currently positioned just south of the offshore waters this evening. Current forecast is on track...with no major changes planned for the evening update. && Aviation... VFR conditions expected next 24 hours with mostly clear skies overnight across west central and southwest Florida. Scattered local broken cumulus 040-050 will develop Sunday morning and persist through the afternoon with no shower/thunderstorm activity expected. && Marine... a small craft warning is in effect for Tarpon Springs south through Bonita Beach including Tampa Bay...as winds are expected to increase to just over 20 knots overnight. Small craft exercise caution will also be in effect for Suwannee River to Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm. High pressure will build in from the north through Monday with conditions improving somewhat...though winds could still increase to cautionary levels each night. && Fire weather... dry air will remain in place on Sunday with 4 hours or more of critical relative humidity expected across most of the area. Sustained 20 foot winds are expected to be very close...but just below red flag criteria. If the erc forecast comes in as high for Sarasota County as it did yesterday...or if erc values rise in other counties...a red flag warning will be needed. Moisture will begin to increase on Monday with further issues not anticipated. && Preliminary point temps/pops... tpa 67 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 fmy 67 90 69 89 / 0 10 10 20 gif 64 89 67 87 / 0 0 0 10 srq 65 90 68 88 / 0 0 10 10 bkv 57 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 spg 72 87 71 86 / 0 0 0 10 && Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... Florida...none. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 nm-Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 to 60 nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm- Tampa Bay waters. && $$ Update/marine/fire weather...Fleming aviation...Oglesby