Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 312 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Short term...(this evening through thursday) issued at 311 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 .Possible isolated severe tonight...Critical fire weather conditions Thursday... Main concern in the short term is the potential for thunderstorms...possibly severe...along and east of the dry line this afternoon and evening. Current Storm Prediction Center mesoscale analysis shows 3 to 4 thousand j/kg of SBCAPE and 40kt 0-6km bulk shear across the eastern plains with little cin. The latest hrrr and rap try to initiate a few cells in this area between 22z and 01z tonight. Any storm that is able to initiate will have a good chance of producing large hail. The latest hrrr and rap also push the dryline slightly farther west into extreme eastern Pueblo and El Paso counties as well as central Las Animas County. I have increased probability of precipitation to isolated in these areas. Over the rest of the region...dewpoints were quick to drop west of the Interstate into the single digits this morning...and are slowly dropping along the I-25 corridor as winds continue to increase in these areas. The current red flag warning looks good and will leave it intact. Thursday... The forecast area will remain between a quasistationary cut off low centered over Idaho and a broad ridge of high pressure centered over Texas. The resulting southwest flow will result in critical fire weather conditions across the I-25 corridor and areas westward. Gusty winds...low dewpoints...and dry fuels will promote extreme fire growth in these areas. A red flag warning has been issued beginning at 11am for these area. The nam12/GFS indicate the dryline will still be in southeastern Colorado Thursday afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible in Baca County. If the dryline sets up farther westward than currently indicated...additional counties will need to be watched for storm initiation late Thursday afternoon. -Pjc Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) issued at 311 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 ..critical fire weather conditions continue through the weekend into early next week... Southwest flow will remain over the region through the weekend with a repeat performance of critical fire weather conditions possible again for Friday. This looks most likely to occur across the mountains and valleys and southern I-25 corridor. It gets a little trickier for northern portions of the I-25 corridor...mainly Pueblo...El Paso...and Teller counties...with wind gusts possibly coming up just shy of 25 miles per hour for the required 3 hour window. However winds look a little stronger on the GFS so will go ahead and include these areas in the Fire Weather Watch. With temperatures pushing 100 across the plains...with generally 60s/70s and 80s across the mts/valleys...rhs all areas drop to between 5 and 15 percent. Fuels are still too moist or have greened up across the southeast plains east of the I-25 corridor with recent rainfall so no highlights anticipated for them at this time. A similar scenario is expected for Saturday though southerly winds advect higher dew points into the southeast corner of the state. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Colorado/Kansas border along this dry line. Elsewhere...looks like another potential red flag day. Dry and windy conditions continue for Sunday and Monday with critical fire weather conditions likely to continue for the I-25 corridor and points westward through the period. If fuels dry out sufficiently...its possible more of the southeast plains may need to be included. Chances for precipitation look very low...though European model (ecmwf) has the dry line flirting with the eastern border. Upper ridge builds over the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Although it will remain hot and dry...this does help to taper back winds which will alleviate the critical fire weather conditions some. -Kt && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening) issued at 311 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 VFR conditions are expected at kals...kcos...and kpub through Thursday afternoon. The winds at all three sites will begin to weaken after sunset tonight and increase again at or around 17z Thursday morning. -Pjc && Fire weather... issued at 311 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Critical conditions for fire weather will continue for Thursday through Monday as a prolonged hot dry and windy pattern sets up over the district. Conditions will be most volatile across the mountain areas...particularly across the southwest and central mountains and San Luis valley. Critical fire weather conditions may be a bit marginal for the Pikes Peak region on Friday...however winds appear to strengthen across all of the area for Saturday through Monday. Humidities will drop to between 5 and 15 percent each afternoon and with Haines values running around 6...which will lead to conditions favorable for plume dominated fires through the period. Although fuels are not considered critical east of the I-25 corridor...hot dry conditions may cure fuels and make them receptive again over the weekend...thus extreme care should be taken to avoid wildfire starts through this hot dry period across all of south central and southeast Colorado. Winds are expected to weaken some for Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region...however it is likely to remain hot and dry none-the-less. -Kt/pjc && Pub watches/warnings/advisories... red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for coz220>230. Red flag warning from 11 am to 8 PM MDT Thursday for coz220>230. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for coz220>230. && $$ Short term...pjc long term...knots aviation...pjc fire weather...pjc/kt