Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 308 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 Short term...(this evening through wednesday) issued at 245 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 ..isolated storms over and near the mountains and ridges...Temperatures edging above average again on Wednesday... Strong upper ridge will build eastward over Colorado through Wednesday. Enough moisture and instability under the ridge for isolated showers and thunderstorms over and near the mountains and ridges this evening...and again tomorrow afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints generally in the 20s and 30s through tomorrow afternoon...primary storm threats will be lightning and wind gusts to around 45 miles per hour. After a day of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average across the area today...strengthening high pressure will bring temperatures back to a few degrees above average for Wednesday. A pretty nice day on tap for southern Colorado. Lw Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) issued at 245 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 Models in good agreement through the extended with a stagnant pattern featuring an area of low pressure over the Pacific northwest and high pressure over the Central Plains. This will put the region under broad southwesterly flow with fire weather concerns and chances for convection. Wednesday night through Thursday evening...high pressure will move across the region Wednesday night with easterly low level flow developing through the overnight period. This should help keep afternoon highs on Thursday cool upper 60s to lower 70s across the plains. The upslope low level flow will help keep low clouds across the region. Models printing out light precipitation beginning late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. How much if any precipitation falls is still in question...instability is weak and much depends on how much moisture works into the region as well. Southwesterly flow aloft will begin to work into the Continental Divide by Thursday afternoon. This will set up mixing across the San Luis valley and the potential for dangerous fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon into the evening. This will need to be monitored. Friday through Sunday...the upper level ridge will shift east into the Continental U.S. As southwesterly flow aloft encompasses The Rockies. The main issues will be fire weather concerns and the potential for convection across the far eastern plains. Each afternoon...models are developing a dryline out near the Kansas border. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) vary with dryline position which will determine where convection is expected. For now have low probability of precipitation to account for daily afternoon dryline activity out near the Kansas border. Mixing is expected to increase through the weekend which will lead to widespread fire weather concerns for the western two thirds of the County Warning Area. Gusty afternoon winds and very low humidity values are expected...especially over the San Luis valley and I-25 corridor. Afternoon high temperatures are expected rapidly warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the weekend. Monday and Tuesday...the pattern begins to shift east with broad southwesterly flow across the region. Expect dry conditions across the area with widespread fire weather concerns each afternoon for all of southern Colorado. Those with outdoor grilling activities planned for Memorial Day should use extreme caution. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be warm with upper 80s to middle 90s across the plains. Mozley && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) issued at 245 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 Generally VFR across flight area next 24 hours...including all 3 taf sites. However...isolated thunderstorms through 03z today and again 17z-03z Wednesday...primarily over and near the mountains and ridges...will result in the possibility of very localized MVFR to LIFR conditions associated with that activity. Also...with the convective activity will be the chance for erratic outflow wind bursts to around 45 miles per hour. Lw && Pub watches/warnings/advisories... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for coz224. && $$ Short term...lw long term...mozley aviation...lw