Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 307 am MDT Sat may 25 2013 Discussion...unsettled weather will continue all the way through next week across eastern Idaho. The next system is currently moving toward western Idaho early this morning and will swing into our area today. This will help kick off some showers and isolated afternoon/evening storms. The best chance will be across portions of the central mountains and upper snake Highlands. There is some indication that enough instability is present as the tail end of the disturbance to help produce an isolated storm across the mountains from City of Rocks to Pocatello to around Palisades. Confidence is not high about this but it's enough to include a 10 percent chance in the grids for those areas through this evening. Sunday and Memorial Day appear quite active as another system swings east and eventually northeast across Idaho. Once again the models are still not agreeing on timing this through our part of the state...but getting closer. By Sunday afternoon...the system will be moving toward the Oregon border. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the day tomorrow...ranging from a decent chance across the central mountains to an isolated storm around Bear Lake. The atmosphere appears to be more unstable and with the system oriented from northwest to southeast...stronger (non-severe) storms are possible. The main threats to look out for will be gusty winds around 40mph...brief downpours and perhaps small hail. The threat of gusty winds may actually be higher once you get away from the central mountains due to slightly drier air in place below cloud base. The system moves across Idaho and to our northeast on Memorial Day. We will see drier air come in behind this system...and by afternoon the threat of showers and storms will be mostly across the central and eastern mountains. We can expect a little more wind on Monday...but not enough to trigger any type of wind impact even on area lakes. Temperatures will be at or just above average for the end of may today and tomorrow...but cooling down around 5 degrees or so on Monday. A showery and cool pattern is still on tap for most of next week. A slow moving storm system will keep showers and storms in the forecast areawide through midweek. Not much detail can be pulled out of the models at this point as this system is splitting and individual disturbances are hard to pick out. It does appear that by next weekend...we may see drier weather move back in but it will depend on how quickly the entire pattern shifts east. Current temperature forecasts are running 5-10 degrees below average. Keyes && Aviation...widespread VFR conditions will persist for today with 10 to 20 knot winds during daytime hours. Dsh && Fire weather...he region will remain under southwest flow with a broad low pressure area along the Washington and British Columbia border. An embedded shortwave will swing through southwest and central Idaho today and produce isolated to scattered convective showers over the central mountains and along the Montana border. On Sunday a significant trough deepens along the Pacific northwest coast and moves inland. Expect scattered afternoon convection and lingering precipitation into early Monday. Pattern remains unsettled through Friday with cooler temperatures and a chance of precipitation each day. Dsh && Pih watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$