Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 1122 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013 Discussion... Updated for 06z aviation discussion && Previous discussion... /issued 919 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ Update... Showers have been developing over the last hour or two along a warm front that stretches from near Poplar Bluff Missouri to near Jackson. The activity has been lifting up to the northeast. Models have been showing this activity developing and blossoming overnight. Current forecast has 40 probability of precipitation across west Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Will update to bump up to 60 probability of precipitation and will lower probability of precipitation across northeast Mississippi. May also bump up lows in Memphis as it is still 80 degrees at this hour otherwise rest of forecast looks good. Update will be out shortly. Krm Discussion... /issued 303 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ Skies are partly to mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to middle 80s. There is not much activity on the radar this afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon with the best chance of development occurring in eastern sections of the forecast area. By Sunday...an upper level ridge will build into the middle Mississippi Valley. This ridge will keep dry weather most of the region for Sunday and into early Monday. Temperatures will be a little warmer as well with highs mainly in the upper 80s. By Sunday night...a cold front will moving across the plains states. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front and some of this activity may reach far northwest sections of the forecast area late Sunday night or early Monday morning. By Monday the cold front will continue to move slowly east with a better chance of thunderstorms expected mainly over western sections of the forecast area. The cold front gets closer to the region Tuesday and Wednesday then moves into the forecast area Thursday and Friday. The chance of thunderstorms will continue during much of the upcoming week. Can't rule out some severe thunderstorms during the week with the better chance of some occurring on Tuesday night but the risk remains rather small at this time. Temperatures during the upcoming week look to be near normal. Ars && Aviation... 00z taf cycle VFR conds continue across most of the area. Latest data still shows that the low levels will not be as moist tonight. Kept the possibility of lower ceilings out of kmem with just a mention of light fog. Continued mentioning a tempo of MVFR/IFR ceilings at kmkl...kjbr and ktup from 19/10z-19/14z along with some light fog. Any lower conds will improve quickly to VFR Sunday morning as upper level ridging strengthens over the area. Expect a light south breeze overnight increasing and becoming gusty later Sunday morning...diminishing again after 20/00z. Sjm && Preliminary point temps/pops... mem 73 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 20 mkl 68 88 69 88 / 30 10 10 10 jbr 69 88 70 86 / 10 10 20 30 tup 69 89 68 89 / 20 10 10 10 && Meg watches/warnings/advisories... Arkansas...none. MO...none. MS...none. Tennessee...none. && $$