Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 1135 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013 Discussion... Updated for 06z aviation discussion && Previous discussion... /issued 836 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013/ Update... Line of severe thunderstorms currently moving through southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas should push into Randolph and Lawrence counties between 10-11 PM CDT. Line should weaken some by the time it reaches northeast Arkansas due to the loss of daytime heating. However...there will still may be a few strong to severe thunderstorms that may occur. Will update to bump up probability of precipitation. Update will be out shortly. Krm Discussion... /issued 324 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013/ Tonight through Wednesday... Fairly decent model agreement through the short term...with just some issues resolving the convection that is developing off to the west and how it will move this way tonight...and again tomorrow. Not enough differences to lower forecast confidence too much...remains above average. Ridging looks to continue to hold on through the evening with the southerly flow continuing to pull moist Gulf air into the midsouth. Convection off to the west may organize this evening and make a run at the region late tonight...pushing into the northwest half of the forecast area...though weakening dramatically as it pushes into the ridge. Little if any severe weather threat. Clouds left behind will limit heating some and likely dampen the environments ability to destabilize sufficiently for severe storms. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible and increase in coverage from the west during the late afternoon into the evening and overnight...especially after Wednesday 00z. Severe storm chances seem small due to some limiting factors such as the time of day the bulk of the storms will reach the region...modest instability...and not too impressive lapse rates according to the latest soundings. Gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall will be very likely. Front will push through the region Wednesday with the showers and thunderstorms exiting the area by late in the day for much...if not all of the region. -Abs Thursday through Sunday... Drier and cooler air will work into the region behind the front as surface high nudges into the midsouth. Each day should be dry through Sunday...with slightly below normal or normal temperatures Thursday through Saturday...and warming Sunday with a southerly push of warmer and more moist air from the Gulf as ridging expands across the region. Possible return of diurnal showers and thunderstorms early next week. -Abs && Aviation... 06z taf cycle A weakening line of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain showers will push into western parts of the midsouth overnight. Expect the line to hold together and reach kjbr after 21/08z and glance kmem after 21/10z. Kmkl and ktup will remain VFR for the remainder of the night. Expect some leftover rain showers and patchy MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning. Any lower conds will improve to VFR by midday Tuesday. Expect another round of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain to develop and start to impact western areas of the midsouth late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Added tempos for thunderstorms and rain showers at kjbr...kmem and kmkl for Tuesday evening. South winds at 6-10 kts tonight...increasing to 12-14 kts with higher gusts by Tuesday afternoon. Sjm && Aviation... && Preliminary point temps/pops... mem 74 88 70 83 / 10 30 80 50 mkl 71 85 69 82 / 10 30 70 50 jbr 70 84 66 82 / 60 60 80 30 tup 70 88 69 82 / 10 20 50 60 && Meg watches/warnings/advisories... Arkansas...none. MO...none. MS...none. Tennessee...none. && $$