Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia 932 PM EDT Sat may 25 2013 Synopsis... high pressure will build into the middle Atlantic region through the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend. The high will move offshore Monday...and a warm front will cross the area on Tuesday. An upper ridge then builds through the rest of the week. && Near term /through Sunday/... as the sun GOES down...and surface low pressure continues to move away from the region...the winds that have plagued the area the last couple days are finally starting to settle down. Diurnal cumulus have just about dissipated...but there is cirrus spillover from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region into mainly southwestern portions of the area. The trajectory of the bulk of these clouds is SW of the Shenandoah Valley...but may still need to account for something other than clear in the far SW zones. Another chilly night is in store with lows in the 40s east of the Blue Ridge and 30s west. Winds have already gone calm in much of WV and stand a chance of doing so particularly in sheltered valleys of The Highlands. Frost advisory remains in effect in those areas. On Sunday...northwest flow continues but it should not be as windy as today and the cool air mass should begin to modify. Therefore...expect temperatures to rebound around 70 in the afternoon with ample sunshine. && Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday/... high pressure is forecast to move off the coast on Memorial Day Monday...resulting in a return flow to develop. May start to see an increase in clouds especially Monday night to the north of a warm front. This warm front will cross the County Warning Area on Tuesday...instigating a more significant warming trend. With the warm front and a return in moisture...there is a small chance of convection late Monday night into Tuesday...but most areas may wind up staying dry. && Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... above normal temperatures are expected middle to late week...perhaps even into the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the eastern states. Under the ridge...subsidence will likely put a lid on convection...however can/T rule out isolated diurnally driven storms over the mountains. && Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/... gusts are gradually diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west. Aside from a small chance of thunderstorms Tuesday...no significant weather is expected during the outlook period. && Marine... winds have quickly died down after sunset...and the Small Craft Advisory for the Upper/Middle tidal Potomac has been cancelled. Winds right now are even marginal on the rest of the waters...but will keep Small Craft Advisory in effect at this point. Winds should become gusty again tomorrow after daybreak...enough to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria over the Bay and lower tidal Potomac. High pressure builds in through early next week. Will have to watch southerly flow up the Bay for gusts at or above 15 knots during the middle week. && Fire weather... again tomorrow...with dewpoints in the 30s...and temperatures approaching 70...relative humidity values could approach or fall below 30 percent in some areas. However...winds will be less than the last couple days and fuel moistures remain high. && Climate... based on preliminary statistics...the morning low of 46 at dca is the coolest low temperature so late in the Spring since 1996 /may 30th/. If the low at dca drops below 50 tonight...it will be the first time with three consecutive lows below 50 this late in the season since 1967. For BWI...the morning low of 44 is the coolest low temperature so late in the Spring since 2001 /may 31st/. && Lwx watches/warnings/advisories... District of Columbia...none. Maryland...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am EDT Sunday for mdz501. Virginia...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am EDT Sunday for vaz503-504. WV...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am EDT Sunday for wvz501-503-505-506. Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for anz530>534- 537>543. && $$ Synopsis...je/bpp near term...je/bpp short term...bpp long term...bpp aviation...je/bpp marine...je/bpp fire weather...je climate...je