Area forecast discussion National Weather Service New Orleans la 317 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013 Discussion... An upper level disturbance continues to move eastward this afternoon. Although thunderstorm activity has decreased in coverage...a few thunderstorms still remain. Through the remaining afternoon hours...most of the activity will affect Terrebonne and possibly Lafourche parishes before moving over the northern Gulf. A trough will begin to set up over the northeastern states tomorrow. This will allow for a wedge or otherwise known as a backdoor front to move in from the northeast late Thursday into Friday. We could see additional showers and possibly brief thunderstorms along the front before clearing skies and a ridge of high pressure moves in time for the weekend. Expect for daytime temperatures to remain near normal this weekend especially with the expected sunshine. However...the lower dewpoints will make conditions feel slightly more pleasant. Overnight temperatures will be running below normal especially for the Northshore. Ridge breaks down by Monday as the center of the high shifts more to the east allowing for a southerly flow to once again establish itself across the region. Expect moisture to increase during the week and temperatures to continue to rise quite possibly above normal. Moisture should be deep enough to allow the afternoon Summer like storm by middle week. 7/arm && Aviation... 18z taf discussion...scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to impact southeast la and S MS. Outside of any convection... expect VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon hours. With increased moisture and light winds forecast overnight...low ceilings and patchy fog will once again be possible. Have included tempo groups at nearly all taf sites for MVFR or IFR ceilings and/or visibilities. Expect conditions to improve after sunrise. && Marine... High pressure ridge will establish itself across the area beginning on Friday and continue through the weekend. As a result...this will produce an offshore flow. There is some potential...especially in the eastern waters...of a period of exercise caution conditions Friday night into Saturday morning as drier air works in. Onshore flow returns Sunday night and will continue through much of next week. && Decision support... dss code...blue. Deployed...none. Activation...none. Activities...slurry support. Monitoring river flooding. Monitoring convection and heavy rainfall trends. Decision support services (dss) code legend green = no weather impacts that require action blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high visibility event yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe and/or direct tropical threats; events of National significance && Preliminary point temps/pops... mcb 65 90 65 87 / 10 20 20 10 btr 68 91 69 89 / 10 20 10 20 asd 68 89 68 88 / 20 20 20 10 msy 70 88 71 88 / 10 20 10 20 gpt 68 87 69 88 / 20 20 20 10 pql 67 87 66 89 / 20 20 20 10 && Lix watches/warnings/advisories... la...none. GM...none. MS...none. GM...none. && $$