Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 1055 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 Update... issued at 1055 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 Did a quick update to the grids to goose the timing of the showers across east Kentucky tonight. Also fine tuned the T/dew point and wind grids to better match the latest observation and trends...cold air advection pattern should lead to fairly uniform and chilly temperatures across the area by morning... a bit cooler in the northwest than the far southeast. Updates have been sent to the ndfd and web servers with a fresh zone forecast product on the way. Update issued at 840 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 00z surface analysis shows a secondary cold front crossing into Kentucky from a low pressure area moving into New England. A large area of cool high pressure descending from the upper Midwest follows this front. Along the boundary to our northwest...there is a broken line of light showers at the moment. The convection from the afternoon and early evening has departed far eastern parts of the area taking any risk for thunderstorms along with it. As such...have updated the forecast to address this and also fine tune the timing of the precipitation threat with the next boundary. Did also minimize the rain chances in the east for the next several hours before they pick up again with the approach of the front. Finally...matched up the T and dew point grids for the latest observation and trends. Updates have been sent to the ndfd and web servers along with a fresh set of zones and severe weather potential statement. && Short term...(this evening through Friday night) issued at 223 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 The models are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the systems moving across the area. A weak cold front is currently moving across the area. It has produced scattered showers across the Coal fields and there has also been a couple of thunderstorms mainly near the WV border. There is a front with cooler air behind it which will be moving across the area this evening. It will also bring some scattered showers to the area tonight. One concern is how cold will it get on Friday night as the clouds move out of the area and the winds stay light. Expecting to some some patchy valley frost that evening...however no hard freezes. Long term...(saturday through thursday) issued at 241 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 Models are in decent agreement through the remainder of the weekend...but start to diverge by early next week with confidence in the forecast much less from Monday Onward. The period will start with surface high centered over the area...providing tranquil conditions. By late in the weekend...a warm front will develop over the Ohio Valley. The GFS is much more aggressive with the warm front lifting to the northeast...while the European model (ecmwf) is much slower. A compromise of the two would keep the boundary in our vicinity through midweek...supporting some isolated showers and thunderstorms across a portion of the area each day. This may be confined to the afternoon and evening each day. Otherwise...no significant pieces of energy rotating through the area...so it looks like isolated activity may be the best we do into next week. Of course with the models in disagreement on evolution...things could change warranting a period of higher probability of precipitation. After cooler weather this weekend...a gradual warming trend is anticipated into next week as the warm front lifts across the area. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening) issued at 845 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013 Another round of scattered showers is expected to pass through east Kentucky late tonight as a secondary cold front drops through the area. From this...a bout of lower clouds and reduced visible...down to MVFR for a time...is anticipated. Conditions will improve early Friday as high pressure clears out the lower clouds and yields VFR conditions from middle morning on. Breezy northwest winds of 10 to 20 kts will settle a bit overnight before resuming from the north during the day Friday. && Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Update...greif short term...jj long term...kas aviation...greif