Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 220 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 Short term...(this evening through Thursday night) issued at 200 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 Still waiting for the convection to get going today. The area west of jkl is more stable than what we say yesterday. The area to the east where there has been a lot less cloud cover is becoming very unstable. The missing ingredient is some forcing to get the convection going. With time the differential heating may be enough and then some convection may start popping up along this boundary. This eastern portion of the area is most likely to see any severe weather today. At the taf stations...they should see just garden variety thunderstorms. The fog potential tonight will depend on how much rain fall this afternoon and evening. Later this evening an upper trough will move near the area and kick off some additional showers and thunderstorms. There will also be some scattered showers tomorrow as the trough passes. Long term...(friday through wednesday) issued at 220 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 Our weather pattern will start out with a deep upper level trough over the East Coast with dry northwest flow in place over east Kentucky through the weekend. Temperatures will be below normal with highs mainly in the 60s...with some low 70s by Sunday. This trough will gradually shift east with somewhat flat upper level ridging building into the region next week. Temperatures will warm with time as this takes place...but rain chances will also reappear as a series of weak shortwaves pass through the building ridge. Will advertise 20-30 probability of precipitation from Sunday night through Wednesday...although it appears instability remains absent until Tuesday when some thunder will be added. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) issued at 200 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013 Still waiting for the convection to get going today. The area west of jkl is more stable than what we say yesterday. The area to the east where there has been a lot less cloud cover is becoming very unstable. The missing ingredient is some forcing to get the convection going. With time the differential heating may be enough and then some convection may start popping up along this boundary. This eastern portion of the area is most likely to see any severe weather today. At the taf stations...they should see just garden variety thunderstorms. The fog potential tonight will depend on how much rain fall this afternoon and evening. Put some mist in the forecast thinking that all the stations will see some rainfall. Later this evening an upper trough will move across the area and kick off some additional showers and thunderstorms. Except for some tempo IFR vicinity of thunderstorms...most of the area will see VFR until after 6z when some mist will be forming. && Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Short term...jj long term...Abe aviation...jj