Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 330 am EDT Thursday Jun 20 2013 ..cold front will stall across northeast Florida... ..Scattered to numerous showers and storms for the remainder of the week... Short term (today-Friday night)... Cold front across southeast Georgia will move south and then stall across NE Florida today and then begin to move back north as a warm front on Friday. With broad trough over the area...deep tropical moisture in place...middle level impulses traversing the frontal boundary...will have scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. Went with high end scattered probability of precipitation today but likely on Friday as there will be added lift when the front moves back north. Timing of best coverage of storms will most likely coincide in the afternoon and evening when seabreezes and outflows will help enhance storms. While the risk of severe storms is low...a few storms may be strong producing strong and gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Increased cloud cover will help temperatures in check...with high temperatures mostly around 90 but a few areas across the extreme south may make it to the lower 90s. The exception will be along the coast as the afternoon seabreeze will keep maximum temperatures there in the upper 80s. Long term...Saturday through Thursday... Sat/sun...active diurnal round of storms will continue as old frontal boundary/moisture lingers over the region with probability of precipitation in the 40-60% range both days and seasonable maximum temperatures near 90 degrees. Steering flow still light/variable so expect sea breezes from both coasts to ignite daily activity with outflows and boundary collisions to sustain it well into the evening hours. Mon/Tue...Bermuda high pressure ridge re-establishes itself just north of the region and onshore flow will pick up along with drier air and high pressure building in aloft. This will cut precipitation chances down to 20-30% with highest probability of precipitation over inland areas away from the coast. Highs will range from the upper 80s along the coast to the lower 90s well inland. Wed/Thu...high pressure ridge slides back to the south across the forecast area and with a slight increase in moisture expect probability of precipitation to return to climatology values in the 30-40% range both afternoons although the lingering onshore/southeasterly flow will keep the highest probability of precipitation inland. Maximum temperatures near climatology values of upper 80s at the coast and lower to possibly middle 90s well inland. && Aviation... mainly VFR with convective debris cloudiness this morning...then fairly active this afternoon with scattered/numerous storms and have continued thunderstorms in the vicinity in all taf locations after 18z...then prob30 groups for main timing of convection between 21-00z. Tempo MVFR ceilings/visibilities at this time and will be refined with later taf packages. && Marine...a cold front front will move south and stall across the waters today and then move back north as a warm front tonight and Friday. Light winds will become NE to east today as high pressure builds well north of the area. Winds become east to southeast tonight and Friday as the front lifts to the north. No headlines expected although southeast winds will increase to around 15 knots by the weekend as the western Atlantic ridge builds north of the waters. Will have scattered to numerous showers and storms each day for the remainder of the week. Coverage of storms will begin to decrease some over the weekend as the ridge begins to build in. Rip currents: low risk for the remainder of the week. An elevated risk is anticipated by the weekend as there will be an increase in the onshore flow and swells. && Preliminary point temps/pops... amg 88 70 89 70 / 50 30 50 40 ssi 84 74 86 74 / 50 40 60 50 jax 89 72 89 72 / 50 50 60 50 sgj 87 74 87 75 / 50 40 60 40 gnv 91 70 89 71 / 50 40 60 40 ocf 92 73 91 72 / 40 40 60 40 && Jax watches/warnings/advisories... Florida...none. Georgia...none. Am...none. && $$ Pp/jh