Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 1139 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 Short term...(this evening through monday) issued at 324 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 Tonight-Sat: isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain have developed over mainly Butler County on eastern edge of better instability. Will keep some isolated chances going until 7 PM for that. Otherwise precipitation chances this period appear to be limited to a grazing slight chance across far north/NE sections of forecast area later tonight through Sat. 1200 UTC models were a bit too eager...breaking out extensive convection across OK this morning...which did not occur. This convection subsequently affected low level fields over Kansas this afternoon. Otherwise temperatures/winds will be on the increase. Previous forecast likely on track trending warmer on maxes. Sat night-Mon: main focus for precipitation both Sat night/Sun night will be storms developing in western Kansas on dryline and working into the area during the night. Models portend large cap across the area during the day...and in absence of strong front/convergence should... at least in theory...preclude home grown storms. However cape will be quite high...so large core/strong storms are likely if anything can develop during peak heating...with mainly microburst potential. Oddly...1000-850 millibar thicknesses would support warmer temperatures than the usual 850mb mixdown temperatures. The thickness based numbers are also similar to going forecast for both Sat/sun...but warmer than Monday. Given large cap on Monday and good mixing...am inclined to trend warmer. Increasing surface pressure gradient will allow for a bit stronger winds...though it appears that they will be below advisory criteria. Will still be stiff breeze for those out on area lakes this Holiday weekend. -Howerton Long term...(tuesday through friday) issued at 324 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 Tuesday-Fri: eastern US ridge holds tough while western trough digs/moves closer this period...with flow across area becoming less zonal. Dryline moves closer and depending on model...Tuesday night...Wednesday night and/or Thursday night could all potentially be quite active west of I-35...especially across central and western sections of south central Kansas. Considerable differences in capping and orientation/ convergence on dryline which will be key for both if/where storms initiate. Maxes will be tricky with a lot depending on clouds and any lingering daytime precipitation. -Howerton && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) issued at 1134 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 Aviation concerns remain low ceilings overnight into Sat morning. MVFR ceilings have already developed along and west of I-135. Am expecting these ceilings to remain and lower slightly toward daybreak. Will run with IFR levels for the slightly higher elevation sites (khut-krsl) but do feel that kict will at least flirt with some IFR levels late tonight. These ceilings should start to lift a couple hours after sunrise. The main aviation story will then become the strong south winds. Along and west of I-135 am looking at sustained speeds in the 25-30 miles per hour range with higher gusts...especially over central Kansas. Lawson && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 64 86 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 Hutchinson 65 87 65 90 / 10 10 20 10 Newton 63 87 65 89 / 10 20 20 10 Eldorado 62 85 65 86 / 10 10 20 10 Winfield-kwld 64 84 66 87 / 10 10 10 10 Russell 65 89 65 91 / 20 20 30 20 Great Bend 64 89 65 91 / 10 10 20 20 Salina 65 87 65 90 / 20 20 30 10 McPherson 64 87 65 90 / 10 20 20 10 Coffeyville 60 82 65 84 / 10 20 10 10 Chanute 60 83 65 84 / 10 20 20 10 Iola 59 83 64 84 / 10 20 20 10 Parsons-kppf 60 83 65 84 / 10 20 10 10 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$