Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 321 am CDT sun may 19 2013 Short term...(today through tuesday) issued at 320 am CDT sun may 19 2013 Forecast highlight (major): severe thunderstorms and rain potential remains high for most areas along & east of I-135 this afternoon & tonight. Upper-deck trough that was digging over Great Basin early Sat morning is behaving much as expected by taking on strong negative tilt from the central rockies to the OK/Texas panhandles. This negatively-tilted upper trough will continue to play major role in the development of exceptionally powerful severe thunderstorms and rain (especially over southeast Kansas where better positioned under pronounced upper diffluence enhanced by left exit region of 60-70 knots jet streak rounding base of the trough. In response the surface cyclone situated over western Kansas will push east/NE toward central Kansas which would enable a strong surface dry line draped across eastern nm to push east across the panhandles. The eastward progress of the dry line will have to be watched closely. Over the eastern plains high octane surface-850mb fuel will spread northwest & NE respectively across southeast Kansas. The gradually dissipating early morning thunderstorms and rain coupled with surface heating would definitely induce further destabilization. The convective available potential energy forecast by the NAM & especially the GFS of 2500-4000 j/kg coupled with the increased shear should easily promote supercellular development with the destructive hail & tornadoes the primary threats this afternoon & early this evening. Like last night...the primary threat should transition to damaging winds & with precipitable waters increasing to 125-150% of normal the ++ra potential would also increase over southeast Kansas. On Monday...with deep cyclogenesis having already ensud over Nebraska & South Dakota the surface front may stall as it approaches central Kansas. As such +tsra are likely to increase over southeast Kansas Monday afternoon & night. The potential for flooding would certainly increase over southeast Kansas. In fact a Flood Watch may be required for southeast Kansas Monday night. As the northern plains cyclone occludes Tuesday morning deepening SW-westerly flow should enable rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to end over southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Long term...(wednesday through saturday) issued at 320 am CDT sun may 19 2013 After a 2-day intermission scattered -shra/-tsra should return to the region Wednesday night with chances steadily increasing from Thursday Onward. The culprit is a 2nd middle-level shortwave that'll move southeast around the base of the middle level low. With this scenario having changed little over the past 3-4 runs the inherited forecast has been kept intact. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night) issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013 Anticipating hit-and-miss scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue affecting the region through the overnight...due to low- level warm/moist advection ahead of shortwave approaching from the southwest. The strongest cores will be capable of dime size hail and locally heavy rain. Additionally...thinking MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will develop across the area toward dawn due to moist low-levels and diurnal cooling. Another round of thunderstorms will affect kict and especially kcnu tomorrow afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Adk && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 88 60 81 58 / 50 30 30 40 Hutchinson 84 59 81 55 / 50 20 20 30 Newton 87 60 79 57 / 60 30 30 30 Eldorado 86 62 81 59 / 60 50 40 50 Winfield-kwld 87 63 82 60 / 60 50 40 60 Russell 81 54 78 53 / 40 10 20 20 Great Bend 81 55 78 53 / 40 10 20 20 Salina 83 58 80 53 / 50 20 20 30 McPherson 84 59 80 55 / 50 20 20 30 Coffeyville 85 65 83 62 / 60 80 60 90 Chanute 85 65 82 61 / 70 80 50 80 Iola 85 65 82 61 / 70 80 50 80 Parsons-kppf 85 65 82 62 / 70 80 60 90 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Es