Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 640 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 Short term...(today through sunday) issued at 316 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 Today-tngt: two areas of concern early today. Expecting some early morning convection over northwest Kansas...to drift southeast into SW Kansas as the morning progresses...staying well west of the forecast area. The next concern will be a weak pv-anomaly moving northeast across the western Texas Panhandle and lifting northeast into the High Plains. This will lead to a renewed chance of convection across the High Plains and northwest Kansas for the afternoon hours. Not sure how far east this convection will progress...as most of south central and cen Kansas stays capped due to increasing warm temperatures aloft. So will trim back probability of precipitation dramatically today...only keeping some slight probability of precipitation for areas west of I-135 in case anything can drift off the High Plains. The main thing for most areas today will be increasing low level moisture which will lead to a more humid day and warmer temperatures. The warm moist advection looks to continue tonight...as the low level jet (llj) increases across Kansas. Latest short term models show the nose of this low level jet and elevated instability increasing over cen Kansas into NE Kansas late tonight. So will keep chance probability of precipitation along and north of I-70 for this chance. Expect some sort of complex of storms to develop over NE Kansas early on Sat....which will move east into Sat am as low level jet veers to the east. Sat-Sun: the warm temperatures and humid conditions look to continue for the rest of the Holiday weekend as the surface warm front moves well north of the area. Will go a little above guidance temperatures for areas west of I-135...with cen Kansas approaching 90 degrees...with middle-upper 80s for south cen Kansas. Think some convection may still be on-going Sat morning for areas northeast of a ksln-kcnu line...as NAM/WRF suggests storms in NE Kansas could backbuild some. Some uncertainty on convection chances further south across southern Kansas for Sat...as warm temperatures aloft will keep the area capped...with lack of any strong impulse in the middle layers for deep moist convection. The only focus will be any outflow that NE Kansas convection could push south. So will keep probability of precipitation low and confined to cen Kansas. Latest GFS shows warm advection/moisture transport stays well north of the area for Sat night into sun as well...which will keep most of the convective chances across cen Kansas or north of I-70. Ketcham Long term...(monday through thursday) issued at 316 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 The warm southerly flow looks to continue for the start of the week as well. With the main Lee side trough remaining along the High Plains for the beginning of the week. This will keep main convection focus west of the area. But will keep some low probability of precipitation across the forecast area for the afternoon/evening hours during this time frame. But some uncertainty on whether the capping inversion will limit afternoon development...so more of an isolated shower/storm chance each afternoon/evening. Medium range models starting to come together on the surface trough pushing closer to the forecast area for Wednesday night and Thursday as a more vigorous shortwave lifts out of the SW US into the plains. So expecting chances for severe weather to increase for the middle of the week...as bulk shear/instability increases. Could see a couple of severe weather episodes during the middle of the week. Stay tuned. Ketcham && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning) issued at 635 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 Low pressure at the surface will strengthen over the High Plains today leading to breezy southerly winds across much of central and south central Kansas. Low level moisture over northern Texas will advect north across the area leading to increasing chances for reduced visibilities and lower ceilings after 03-05z tonight. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be difficult to rule out but due to the isolated nature of any storm that develops maintained dry weather conditions in area tafs. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Wichita-kict 74 63 85 65 / 20 20 10 20 Hutchinson 74 63 85 65 / 30 20 10 20 Newton 71 61 84 65 / 20 20 20 20 Eldorado 73 62 83 65 / 20 10 10 20 Winfield-kwld 74 63 84 66 / 20 10 10 20 Russell 75 62 89 65 / 30 30 20 30 Great Bend 75 62 87 65 / 40 20 10 30 Salina 74 63 85 65 / 30 30 30 40 McPherson 73 63 85 65 / 30 20 20 30 Coffeyville 75 59 82 65 / 10 10 10 20 Chanute 73 59 82 65 / 10 10 20 20 Iola 72 59 82 65 / 10 10 20 20 Parsons-kppf 74 59 82 65 / 10 10 20 20 && Ict watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$