Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 617 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 Discussion... See aviation. && Aviation... Seeing a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings...as well as patchy LIFR fog this morning. Conditions will improve around middle-morning with some mixing. Southeast winds 8-12 kts are expected by late morning. Expect IFR ceilings to return Thursday night. 33 && Previous discussion... /issued 340 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013/ Discussion... a weak trough of low pressure over eastern New Mexico and high pressure over the northern Gulf Coast will maintain onshore winds through the weekend. Hi res models all show isolated to scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain developing with daytime heating and forecast soundings show a breakable cap so added slight chance probability of precipitation for today and again Friday. Upper level ridging begins to amplify over East Texas but the strength of the ridge just doesn't look strong enough to produce strong capping to limit convection. A subtle weakness at 500 mb will slowly move across the state on Sat/sun. This feature will likely produce some scattered convection mainly over the northern and western half of the area on Sunday. A deep upper level trough will develop off the West Coast early next week and move slowly to the east. As the trough deepens...an upper level ridge over Texas will amplify. This should keep things subsident and relatively dry over southeast Texas. Mex numbers look a little cool considering the position of the upper level ridge so went a few degrees warmer than mex guidance. 43 Marine... surface high pressure centered east/northeast of the area coupled with low pressure across West Texas and in the Lee of The Rockies will continue to drive light to moderate onshore flow through the weekend. By Tuesday of next week the pressure gradient will tighten as low pressure deepens across the Western Plains. This will produce stronger onshore winds through late next week and elevate wave heights and winds to caution levels offshore. 33 && Preliminary point temps/pops... College Station (cll) 92 72 90 70 90 / 10 10 20 10 20 Houston (iah) 90 72 90 71 89 / 10 10 20 10 20 Galveston (gls) 83 74 83 73 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 && Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. GM...none. && $$ Discussion...43 aviation/marine...33