Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 250 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014 Synopsis... dry high pressure will continue to be in control of the weather through early next week. A weak cold front will approach the region from the northwest Wednesday and Thursday. && Near term /through Saturday/... as of 245 PM EDT Friday...potent upper shortwave approaching the region form the northwest will continue to yield scattered to broken middle/high level cirrus this afternoon. As this upper wave ejects eastward this evening...surface pressures are expected to rise along this heights aloft. Thus...skies are forecast to clear by early morning allowing for abundant radiational cooling regionwide. These cool temperatures combined with calm winds will yield frost conditions across the high terrain of northwest NC...to include Buncombe County and the outskirts of Asheville proper. Elsewhere...temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 30s across the Southwest Mountains and portions of northeast Georgia while the majority of the upstate and NC Piedmont hold in the lower 40s. Heights aloft will continue to rise on Saturday effectively reinforcing the surface ridge over the southeast. Further west...broad upper ridge will slide east out of the Southern Plains and into the midsouth by periods end. As a result...temperatures on Saturday will return to at or just above normal levels as sunny skies prevail. && Short term /Saturday night through Monday/... as of 200 PM Friday...a weak short wave will cross the area Sat night pushing through a weak cold front. There will be enough low level moisture with this system to combine with the upslope northwesterly flow to produce isolated rain showers along the Tennessee border. There should be quite a bit of clouds across the mountains...even where rain showers do not develop. Breezy to windy conditions will develop as well...but gusts should remain below advisory level even across the higher elevations. The clouds will diminish through the day sun...but breezy conditions will linger. Elsewhere...some clouds may spill out of the mountains and across the NC foothills and Piedmont...but mostly clear skies should prevail. There could even be some low end gusts outside of the mountains temperatures will be above normal. On Monday...a broad 500 mb ridge will build across the eastern Continental U.S. While surface high pressure moves across the southeastern Continental U.S.. southerly winds will develop and thicknesses will be on the rise. This will lead to mostly clear skies and well above normal highs...after lows a few degrees above normal. && Long term /Monday night through Friday/... as of 215 PM Friday...upper ridging atop the southeast Continental U.S. Looks like it will hang on into Tuesday...continuing our stretch of dry weather. Southwesterly low level flow is prognosticated to boost maximum temperatures to above climatology values. It remains to be seen on just how quickly frontal zone moisture will initially affect the mountains on Wednesday with the op GFS slower than earlier solutions. At this point...token small shower chances will be limited to mainly the NC mountains Wednesday. A little more uncertainty creeps into the forecast for the latter half of the period with aforementioned frontal zone sagging into the County warning forecast area on Thursday. At least a limited amount of forcing for showers will linger into Friday before l/WV trough axis rotates through at the end of the period. && Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/... at kclt and elsewhere...VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the period. Middle/high level cirrus will persist through early evening before responsible upper short wave ejects east. Skies will scattered and winds will decrease further behind this feature leading to a rather calm/cool night ahead. Winds are expected to slowly increase out of the northwest by morning at all sites as high pressure persists to the northwest. Outlook...deep layer ridging will dominate the pattern through the first part of the work week leading to quiet weather and a low probability of flight restrictions. && Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... Georgia...none. NC...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Saturday for ncz033-049- 050-053-501-503-505. SC...none. && $$ Synopsis...csh near term...cdg short term...rwh long term...csh aviation...cdg

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