Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Latest update... synopsis/short term/long term/Hydro/marine Synopsis... issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 High pressure to bring warmer and dry weather Thursday and Friday. Warm temperatures on track to remain in place through all of next week. There will be a chance for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon through the early part of next week. && Short term...(this evening through Friday night) issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Low chance for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and Friday night...otherwise a quiet short term period with warming temperatures...and overall little cloud cover. High pressure that will bring warmer air into southwest lower Michigan Thursday and Friday should keep any showers Friday afternoon and evening limited and mostly off to our north or northwest. This high pressure should also help to slow down approaching warm front Friday night keeping chances for storms low then as well. Best chance for any storms this next week in the long term. Long term...(saturday through wednesday) issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Overall the thinking hasnt changed much with the forecast. Agree with the previous forecaster that the best chance of rain looks to be Saturday. The upper ridge in place to the west will begin to tilt toward the northeast with the result being short waves riding northeastward from the plains will begin to cross lower Michigan. At the same time a warm front will be in place across the northern County Warning Area Saturday. Given the abundant moisture in place by then...instability will be moderately high and the combination of numerous short waves and a frontal boundary nearby should result in thunderstorm development. Low shear values should preclude any severe storms however. The general SW flow will continue into next week as the warm front moves north. Will keep chance probability of precipitation in the grids through the period. Decent low level jet over the Mississippi Valley may kick off nocturnal mesoscale convective system development over Minnesota/WI which would then move east-southeast. Models show a deeper trough moving across the upper Midwest Tuesday night/Wednesday. This should increase our precipitation chances again. Muggy conditions will be present through the period with highs in the middle to upper 80s and dewpoints around 70. && Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) issued at 142 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Light winds expected through the period along with clear skies. && Marine... issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Light winds and little wave activity expected tonight through Friday. Thunderstorm chances late Friday afternoon through the weekend with potential hazards to boaters and swimmers from any thunderstorms that develop. && Hydrology... issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 No precipitation expected through Friday. Scattered thunderstorms Saturday through the middle of next week could bring periods of moderate to heavy precipitation to the region...but at this time no hydrology issues are expected to occur in the next week. && GRR watches/warnings/advisories... Michigan...none. Lm...none. && $$ Synopsis...maczko short term...maczko long term...93 aviation...93 hydrology...maczko marine...maczko