Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado 1049 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Update... issued at 1043 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Surface winds have decreased in the valley bottoms but continue to blow strongly from the southwest over higher open terrain. The dry cold front passed through NE Utah and will continue moving through northwest Colorado and reach The Four Corners by sunrise. A wind shift is expected with this front but no precipitation. && Short term...(this evening through Thursday night) issued at 319 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Strong gusty southwest winds will continue this evening as a dry cool moves in from the northwest. As a result...winds may be slow to decouple with some gustiness continuing into the overnight period. The weakening cool front will wash out late tonight. Only a few degrees of cooling will be seen by morning...mainly over the north. Little change is expected in the dry general pattern. However high temperatures will cool a notch on Thursday behind the front. But they will still reach a couple degrees above seasonal normals. Another impulse will rotate around the Pacific northwest low...but it does look like it will be weaker than today's. Therefore the flow aloft is also not expected to be quite as strong. But the continued moderate-to-strong gradient flow will combine with the deep mixed layer in the afternoon and evening for another round of gusty southwest winds at the surface. Very low relative humidity values will persist. Winds should die out a little quicker Thursday evening with overnight temperatures a couple degrees warmer. Long term...(friday through wednesday) issued at 319 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Little change in the pattern Friday as southwest flow continues over the area between the large closed upper low over the northern Rocky Mountains and a ridge set up over the Midwest. Friday should still feature high winds though models suggest less areal coverage in gusty winds. Weak cold front Saturday will pass through northeastern Utah and western Colorado...allowing temperatures to drop a couple degrees and gusty winds from virga in northeastern Utah along the front axis. With such low precipitable water...no measurable precipitation is expected to occur. Remaining on the backside of ridge over Central Plains...once again Sunday daytime heating creates gusty late morning through early evening winds. This pattern begins to let up Monday evening as gradient releases and winds shift to westerly. Precipitable water increases Monday as a weak dissipating trough moves into the region. Will need to keep an eye on for potential of dry lightning illuminating an already smokey region. Temperatures will remain relatively steady through midweek. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night) issued at 1043 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight through Thursday night. Strong SW winds will redevelop Thursday afternoon at the surface and affect all airports again Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour with gusts to 35 miles per hour. Strong SW winds aloft will cause areas of mechanical turbulance over and in the Lee of mountain ranges. && Fire weather... issued at 300 am MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 ..critical fire weather conditions continue... No change to the red flag warnings currently in place for gusty winds and low humidity through late Thursday evening. Wind gusts up to 45 miles per hour are anticipated this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Surface winds should decrease during the overnight and early morning hours before picking up again by midday. Nighttime humidity recovery will be poor. Fire Weather Watch out for portions of western Colorado and northeastern Utah on Friday during the daytime hours. Behind the weak cold front this evening...surface winds will shift to a more west or even northwest direction before shifting back to the southwest Thursday as daytime mixing occurs. The dry southwest flow aloft and gusty surface winds are expected to continue into the weekend as the large-scale pattern appears slow to change. Stay tuned for further developing critical conditions late in the week and into the weekend. Temperatures above normal...humidity very dry...and winds often strong will keep fuels drying at a rapid pace for the remainder of the week. Warm and dry weather looks to continue next week but with less wind as summertime high pressure builds over the region. && Gjt watches/warnings/advisories... Colorado...red flag warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday for coz200-202-203-207- 290>293. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for coz200-202-203-290>293. Utah...red flag warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday for utz482>484-486-487. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for utz484-486-487. && $$ Update...cirrocumulus short term...eh long term...jam aviation...cirrocumulus fire weather...jam