360 fxus64 kfwd 212306 aaa afdfwd Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 506 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 Aviation... upper low continues to pull away from the area...while Lee-side cyclogenesis continues to occur to the west...with weak/surface high pressure ridge anchored right over North Texas. All ceilings through early evening expected to be of the VFR variety and clearing trends next 6 hours hard to diagnose with so much boundary layer moisture west of the area. RUC and NAM to a lesser degrees want to show some clearing with drier air entraining from the north. However...GFS buffer soundings keep some VFR to MVFR ceilings in all evening. This would make a big difference on fog/coverage late tonight/early Sat morning. We will go middle of the Road NAM forecast here and keep some VFR ceilings through middle eve/03z...and scatter an hour or two later than currently forecast. Agree with zfw cwsu folks that if some partial clearing can occur...then fog across d/fw arpts will be thicker than currently forecast...more like whats already advertised at Waco/kact. If ceilings hold like GFS...than fog will be lighter like currently forecast. 05/ && Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ the upper trough that brought rain to North Texas yesterday into this morning...has moved into extreme eastern Texas as of 20z. The trough will continue to move east tonight. Skies have cleared across the extreme western part of North Texas. A band of low clouds have held in across the area along and west of I-35 corridor to the clearing line...while the low clouds just to the east of the I-35 corridor have been slowly breaking up. Expect to see the clouds continue to slowly break up through this evening. With a wet ground and light winds...areas of fog will develop late tonight. Visibilities will likely drop below 3 miles in spots...and can not rule out some patchy dense fog. For now have just mentioned areas of fog from 09z to 15z. The next chance of rain will be Monday night and Tuesday as the next cold front moves into the region. Afterward... dry weather is expected for Wednesday through Saturday...with cool/cold mornings and seasonably mild afternoons. We may see a freeze Wednesday...Thursday and Friday mornings across parts of the western and northern sections of North Texas. 58 && Preliminary point temps/pops... Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 47 69 49 70 47 / 0 5 0 5 20 Waco, Texas 47 69 49 73 51 / 5 0 0 5 20 Paris, Texas 44 67 45 67 48 / 5 5 5 5 40 Denton, Texas 47 69 46 69 45 / 0 5 0 5 20 McKinney, Texas 43 68 44 69 45 / 0 5 0 5 30 Dallas, Texas 49 69 51 70 49 / 0 5 0 5 20 Terrell, Texas 44 68 48 71 52 / 0 5 0 5 30 Corsicana, Texas 46 67 49 71 50 / 5 0 5 5 30 Temple, Texas 46 68 50 73 53 / 5 0 5 5 20 && Forward watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ 05/58