Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 659 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 Aviation... /12z tafs/ MVFR conds prevail over a good portion of North Texas with visible generally around 5sm. There are some areas of dense fog primarily in the lower valleys but this should stay out of the major airports through middle morning. Will prevail VFR conds in the metroplex...although an amend or two may be needed if visible drops further than anticipated. A complex of thunderstorms continues to move southeast across western Oklahoma. These storms are likely to weaken in intensity as they approach so no mention of precipitation in the current forecast. South winds around 10kt expected through the period. Dunn && Previous discussion... /issued 318 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/ the only major forecasting challenge with this package will be patchy fog in the eastern zones this morning and thunderstorm chances today. Light wind and damp ground across East Texas and the eastern portions of North Texas will result in patchy fog through middle morning today. It appears that most of the dense fog should be in East Texas but a few North Texas locations may briefly fall to 1/2 mile visibility. By 11 am...any fog that did develop will have dissipated. A complex of storms...currently across western Oklahoma and the Panhandle...will continue moving southeast through the early morning hours. Cloud tops in the southern portion of the complex have been warming over the past couple of hours and this trend will likely continue. The hrrr seems to have the most reasonable solution of all models based on radar trends over the last few hours so will follow it fairly closely. Therefore...expect most of the West Texas activity to dissipate before reaching the northwest zones around middle morning...but will leave 20 probability of precipitation in to account for any shower or storm that manages to hold together. By this afternoon...a few showers or storms may develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 90s and some left over boundaries provide a focus for lift. Any storms that do develop should be disorganized pulse storms due to the weak sheared and weak flow environment expected. Any showers or storms that do develop this afternoon will dissipate with the loss of surface heating and increasing large scale subsidence from a building upper level ridge. The upper ridge will become the dominant weather feature across the region Thursday through early next week. The good news is that the ridge will never become extremely strong and as a result afternoon high temperatures should not be too much warmer than seasonal normals. Expect afternoon highs through early next week generally in the lower and middle 90s and lows mostly in the 70s. 79 && Preliminary point temps/pops... Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 94 74 95 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0 Waco, Texas 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0 Paris, Texas 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5 Denton, Texas 94 71 95 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0 McKinney, Texas 91 69 92 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0 Dallas, Texas 94 75 94 76 96 / 20 10 0 0 0 Terrell, Texas 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5 Corsicana, Texas 92 72 93 73 94 / 20 10 5 0 0 Temple, Texas 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells, Texas 93 70 94 70 96 / 20 5 0 0 0 && Forward watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$