Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 646 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 Update... Area radars show an area of rain...with a few thunderstorms...from far northwest Minnesota into south central Minnesota as of early evening. This is tied closely with an area of 700mb fgen. The fgen will move a bit to the east tonight...then diminish by 12z. We will update in a bit to adjust probability of precipitation and we'll use the 700mb fgen as a guide to where to put the higher probability of precipitation. && Aviation...00z tafs VFR conditions covered the Northland as of early evening...but an area of showers were moving east toward kbrd/kxvg. We expect this area of showers...and possibly some thunderstorms...to move east this evening. It should not overtake all areas as drier air exists over the east...and the forcing responsible does not move through the Northland either. Kbrd will have the best chance at seeing rain tonight. MVFR conditions will develop over portions of the west...with ceilings lowering over other locations through the period. && Previous discussion... /issued 405 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013/ Short term...tonight and Saturday... an area of showers and thunderstorms from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will slowly spread east this evening. This area is an area of low level warm air advection and an associated upper level vorticity maximum rounding out the top of upper ridge. Most of the lift associate with the systems will slide across the southwest sections of the County Warning Area...where there are the higher probability of precipitation. Put some probability of precipitation in farther north along the Highway 2 corridor in Minnesota and northwest WI...but with dew points in the 20s...it will take awhile to moisten up for rain. The short term models...local and the sref...are consistent in showing the band of showers out to the west with more spotty showers over the east late tonight and tomorrow morning. By afternoon the major area of precipitation will mostly be across western and southern Minnesota...leaving most of the Northland under cloudy skies. Long term [saturday night - thursday]... High pressure over eastern Canada and the eastern United States will help to suppress rain chances across the Northland Saturday night and Sunday. The Northland will be heading into a potentially warm...wet...and active period next week. A middle/upper level ridge over the central United States will begin to shift east as a middle/upper level trough moves into the west. The models indicate one or more warm fronts may move through or near the Northland during the middle to late week period...which could be a stormy period for the Northland. && Point temps/pops... dlh 43 57 41 61 / 40 20 0 10 inl 45 62 43 67 / 50 20 10 0 brd 49 58 46 63 / 70 60 10 30 hyr 44 61 41 67 / 20 30 0 10 asx 41 60 39 63 / 20 20 0 0 && Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... Minnesota...none. WI...none. Ls...none. && $$ Short term...melde/clc long term....grochocinski aviation...melde