Area forecast discussion National Weather Service State College PA 414 PM EDT Sat may 25 2013 Synopsis... a deep upper low over southern New England will continue to move slowly northeast this weekend. High pressure will build southeast out of the Great Lakes Sunday into Memorial Day ensuring fair weather. Temperatures will begin the weekend well below normal but moderate by Memorial Day. && Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... western periphery of stratocu deck associated with upper low just skirting Sullivan and Schuylkill counties late this afternoon...while areas further west are experiencing sunshine mixed west/fair weather cumulus. As the sun sets...expect fair weather cumulus to collapse...leaving clear skies across most of central PA. However...Sullivan/Schuylkill Colorado may remain on the edge of stratocu from upper low. Although the gusty winds will subside somewhat overnight...the thinking right now is that we should keep enough of a breeze to preclude frost in most areas that will stay above freezing. For the other areas...the headline product is therefore a freeze warning as the wind should not prevent temperatures from dropping to freezing or below over most of the higher terrain of the west and north. && Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 PM Sunday/... Sunday looks like a bright day over the area as the surface high noses in from the northwest. The day will begin rather gusty but a slackening gradient during the afternoon should make for less wind later in the day...helping the middle to upper 60s high temperatures feel a little warmer than they otherwise might. && Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/... high pressure building over region Sunday night will bring another chilly night...especially along the northern tier where freeze warning will likely need to be posted again. Expect area to be smaller than tonight/S though. Dry weather continues into Memorial Day as temperatures rebound nicely to within a couple degrees of normal. Warm front drifts across PA Tuesday into Wednesday...bringing with it our weekly best...albeit still low chance for thunderstorms. Though just about all locations will remain rain-free a vast majority of the time. Best chance for a tstorm on Wednesday will be north of a line from kbfd- kipt- krdg. This warm front will also mark the beginning of much milder weather for the remainder of the extended forecast. Lows by Wednesday morning will be in the 50s...with highs pushing above normal into the upper 70s to middle 80s on Wednesday. A gradual warming trend continues into late week as warmer air spreads in around the top of the subtropical ridge from the west/southwest...bringing highs in the 80s for all by Friday as 850mb temperatures warm to around +16c. A downside will be with central PA located on the southern edge of the westerlies/northern edge of the subtropical ridge...we will become vulnerable to upstream mesoscale convective system development as rising humidity also begins to make inroads to the region once again. Differences persist in the timing of any convective development late week and into the weekend...but with a surge in middle level temperatures by late week and weak cap on edge of ridge...each day will bring a low chance for isolated/scattered showers/tstms. Chances for more widespread rain increase late in the weekend heading into early next week as pattern becomes more progressive...pushing the trough over upper Midwest toward the East Coast. && Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/... visuals show some scattered-broken stratocu...but all ceilings where they have one will remain above 3000'. With the loss of heating...skies will scatter out and clear overnight. The gusty northwest wind will gradually diminish as well...down to the 5-15 miles per hour by midnight. Sunday will once again see widespread VFR...but with a gusty northwest wind redeveloping. Expect winds gusting to 15-25 miles per hour by middle to late morning. Outlook... Monday...VFR. Tue-Thu...mainly VFR...but scattered thunderstorm impacts possible. && Fire weather... with diminishing winds...red flag criteria will diminish this evening. Sunday looks like a repeat of today with low rh's and gusty winds. && Ctp watches/warnings/advisories... red flag warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for paz004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066. Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Sunday for paz004>006- 010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042. && $$ Synopsis...la corte near term...Fitzgerald/la corte short term...la corte long term...rxr aviation...jung fire weather...