Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 1247 am CDT Sat may 18 2013 Discussion...updated for 06z aviation. && Aviation...MVFR/IFR ceilings will prevail at ali/crp/vct through the overnight...with brief MVFR conditions at lrd towards daybreak. Southeast winds will once again increase on Saturday with gusts between 25 and 30 knots during the afternoon. Winds subside around 01z with the return of MVFR ceilings at ali/crp/vct between 01z and 03z. && Previous discussion... /issued 940 PM CDT Friday may 17 2013/ Discussion...satellite imagery showed a large area of smoke moving to the north-northwest across the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Expect this smoke/haze will move into the coastal counties Saturday morning with visibilities down to around 5 sm. Strengthening low level flow has brought in low stratus to the coastal waters/coastal counties this evening and will cover the rest of south Texas during the overnight. Strong southerly flow will keep min temperatures above normal. Marine...the winds will remain at scec level over the Gulf waters tonight. Expect smoke will move into the coastal waters overnight limiting visibility offshore. Previous discussion... /issued 631 PM CDT Friday may 17 2013/ Discussion...updated for 00z aviation discussion below. Aviation...VFR at the start of the taf period becoming MVFR overnight...then returning to VFR during daylight hours Saturday. Warm air advection overnight xcptd to lead to scattered to broken low level cloud development with ceilings at MVFR levels. MVFR conditions should develop first at kvct late this evening...kcrp/kali at or below 6z...and then klrd briefly around sunrise. MVFR cloud deck should mix out by middle morning with VFR ceilings prevailing for rest of taf period. Visibilities may briefly become reduced to MVFR levels at kvct overnight. Additionally...areas of haze /large area of particulate matter advecting nwrd from Yucatan areas of mex/ currently xcptd at kcrp/kvct Sat afternoon which may reduce visibilities. Decent srly low level jet overnight should prevent planetary boundary layer from decoupling and thus surface winds should remain elevated. Low level jet to mix to surface during day Sat with moderate to strong southeast winds expeceted all terminals. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Corpus Christi 91 75 90 75 89 / 0 0 10 10 10 Victoria 89 73 87 74 89 / 0 10 10 10 10 Laredo 101 76 100 76 101 / 0 10 10 10 10 Alice 95 73 93 74 92 / 0 0 10 10 10 Rockport 84 75 85 75 86 / 0 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 100 73 97 75 97 / 0 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 91 74 90 75 91 / 0 0 10 10 10 Navy corpus 84 75 85 75 85 / 0 0 10 10 10 && Crp watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. GM...none. && $$ Tb/78...aviation

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