Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Binghamton New York 319 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013 Synopsis... thunderstorms ending this evening...but a cold front will approach the area Thursday with showers likely and a chance for more thunderstorms. Light showers are possible Friday...followed by a significantly cooler yet dry Holiday weekend. && Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 1020 PM update... severe threat winding down quickly...but persists with yet another severe thunderstorm in Oneida County...and at least some gusty remains of a line of thunderstorms in Poconos/Catskills. Lull expected overnight in wake of this activity. Grids updated accordingly. Severe Thunderstorm Watch will expire at 11 PM which should work out well. Next shortwave will approach the western zones 09z- 12z...with quick initiation of shower/thunder development shortly after diurnal heating begins due to moist atmosphere and lack of inhibition. && Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday/... 330 PM update... Cold front will move through the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers are likely Thursday and there is a chance for thunderstorms. Cloud cover is expected to decrease the instability and chance for severe weather but not totally negate it as there will still be some good shear and front to trigger things. On the back side of the front...lingering showers are possible into Friday morning. Northerly flow across the lakes will make stratocu and light showers or sprinkles to hold in over central New York on Friday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Friday and Saturday. Some stratocu again Saturday giving mostly to partly sunny skies with temperatures remaining cool. && Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... period begins with a large and cool Canadian hp building into the area in the wake of a deep low over new eng. 800 mb temperatures drop to near 0c by Sun morning with the possiblity of some leftover precipitation in the eastern zones. Latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) are a bit slower lifting the upper low north into eastern Canada on Sunday indicating the potential for a cloudier cooler day on Sunday than previous forecast. Otherwise still expect steady improvement next week as the upper low finally lifts north into the Maritimes. Have lowered temperatures slightly on Sunday to account for latest GFS/European model (ecmwf) cooler trend... otherwise no significant changes. && Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/... heaviest showers and thunderstorms have ended across the taf sites early this morning but occasional showers will continue through today in moist flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated to scattered thunder could occur through the day but coverage and duration not enough to include in the tafs at this time. The cold front will cross the area from west to east tonight with occasional showers continuing. Again there could be some thunder but coverage and duration not enough to include in the tafs at this time. Winds will be southwest at 5 to 15 kts today shifting to northwest at 5 to 15 kts tonight. Outlook... Friday - Sat...possible lingering restrictions in lower cigs/-shra. Sun - Monday...VFR. Breezy. && Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... PA...none. New York...none. && $$ Synopsis...bmw near term...bmw/mdp short term...bmw long term...dgm/mse aviation...mse