Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 1151 am MDT Friday may 24 2013 Aviation... 18z taf cycle main impact window for aviation concerns will be later this afternoon into this evening for eastern nm. Central and western nm will be under VFR and breezy conditions with perhaps some late day virga around the Rio Grande Valley. Confidence is moderately high that there will be scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms along and east of the central Montana chain after 22z. Greatest threat area for strong to potentially severe storms based on ensemble of high resolution models and Storm Prediction Center will be over the NE plains from near krtn and klvs east to the Texas state line...however some models suggest nearly all of the eastern plains will be under some threat. Models do disagree with how long precipitation will linger over the east and whether or not an MVFR low cloud layer will set up from the Pecos River valley eastward. Greatest confidence to hold predominant group for bkn025 in tafs is at ktcc and krow. Guyer && Previous discussion...332 am MDT Friday may 24 2013... convectively influenced low level Gulf moisture surge making roads rather far westward into the middle Rio Grande Valley late last night. Dewpoint here at the sunport jumped from 5f to 41f in an hour and currently stands at 49f. Expecting the increased low level Gulf moisture over the Rio Grande Valley to mix out by middle to late morning but water vapor imagery indicative of more than just a very shallow push...possibly being enough to get a high based shower or two going as far west as the west-central mountains. Slightly farther east along the Central Mountain chain...where deeper moisture has pushed up against the east slopes...a few storms may actually have a chance at producing wetting rains. Models indicating favored area for showers and thunderstorms late this morning into the early afternoon will be from the south- central mountains eastward into Chaves County. Strong surface convergence over the far eastern plains the favored area for stronger storms late this afternoon and evening...with the eastern plains...in general...the favorite area for afternoon and evening storms. Similar weather scenario on tap for Saturday with another westward push of Gulf moisture into the middle Rio Grande Valley and possibly as far west as The Divide...with slightly better thunderstorm chances for the jemez...Sandia...Manzano and Gallinas Mountains. Strong westerly flow aloft on Sunday and Monday will start to dry things out from the west. Strong Lee side troughing along with an approaching upper level trough should make for a breezy to windy and very warm Memorial Day. Models have backed off on high temperatures somewhat for both days but still coming in with temperatures above seasonal averages for late may. Medium range global weather prediction models continue to indicate that an unseasonably deep upper level low/trough will approach the state Tuesday and pass slowly through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Continued to trend the forecast in the cooler and 'wetter' direction as a result of the continued consensus. 33 Fire weather... ..near critical to critical conditions persist through the Holiday weekend... A tale of two airmasses to continue through Sunday with the dryline pushing a tad further east each day. Poor humidity recoveries and single digit minimums will characterize central and western portions of the forecast area...while Gulf moisture continues over the eastern plains and acts as fuel for wetting thunderstorms. In between these two strongly contrasted airmasses... generally along the Central Mountain chain...will be the potential for dry lightning this afternoon and again on Saturday. Mixing heights will be well above normal central and west today...but weaker winds aloft will not support surface winds staying above critical thresholds for any length of time. Spotty critical fire weather conditions are expected today and Saturday central and west...but should be short-lived and not widespread. Wetting rains are expected east of the Central Mountain chain today and Saturday...with the best chances along the east slopes of the sangre Delaware cristos and over the adjacent Highlands. However...wetting rains are not expected to be widespread due to the discrete nature of the thunderstorms forecast. Winds aloft pick-up a tad on Sunday and the dryline is forecast to slide further east...bringing critical humidities to near the Texas border. A Fire Weather Watch may be required for much of the area Sunday...with the highest confidence currently across zones 103...104 and 107. Increasing potential for more widespread critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday as winds aloft increase and an upper level trough approaches. However...forecast confidence trends down during this period...as medium range model differences show up with the approaching trough. The 00z GFS is showing good run-to-run consistency with an open wave trough and stronger winds aloft over our area...while the 00z European model (ecmwf) is continuing the trend from the 12z run showing a closed upper low over central Arizona by 12z Wednesday. The closed low solution does have some support from some of the gefs members...so won't discount it. So...relatively high confidence on critical fire weather conditions Monday...decreasing confidence Tuesday...then at least some hope for wetting rains going into the middle of next week. 11 && Abq watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$